After Egypt's June 30: Is it Mb Rule or Democratization?

20 - Oct - 2013

Will the Brotherhood pack their bags?

The economic, political, and security indicators that have emerged during the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and for about two years of rule by the Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia, confirmed that it paved the way for corrective revolution. Public opinion no longer believes in the idea of conspiracy as promoted by the Brotherhood because hearts already have reached the throats.

Experts in international politics came to know that the Brotherhood does not have programs, only mere slogans. In addition, the Brotherhood does not have a strategy except to remain in power longer. It is interesting to observe how a movement that originated 85 years ago (the Brotherhood movement was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna) has lost most of its position within the past year or two. 

Popular empathy and international respect for the Brotherhood movement in the Arab world has plummeted dramatically.  Morsi, who was to some extent enraged and belligerent to the opposition before June 30, 2013, is now pleading to the opposition, this after he saw how the Egyptians took the streets, not only in Cairo, but in all main Egyptian cities, in a show of protest against the Muslim Brotherhood never seen before in this magnitude, even against Mubarak.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is promoting legitimacy as a blank check. Is clinging to legitimacypossible if the country is going towards an imminent collapse in economic ruin and security?

The same mistakes made by Morsi currently are committed by Ghannouchi to varying degrees in Tunisia. The Ennahda Movement that has roots in Brotherhood has nothing to do with local Islam. Ennnahda wants to export to Tunisia a thought that the Egyptian people revolted against.

The Ennahda Movement, with its subjective allies, is adhering to the law of political isolation and the Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution. We said previously that it will open the door of strife on a safe and secure Tunisia. Since independence, Tunisia was not threatened in the unity of its people as it is now.  General Ammar already spoke about the risks of “Somalization” and the political, economic, and security disasters that those risks would bring about. 

The Ennahda Movement is trying to give us a constitution that does not protect national unity and achieves only with great difficulty the civil and democratic state.  The Ennahda government has flooded the country in debt (2.5 billion euros in 2013) without productive loans, and compromised our future generations with restrictions that will have negative repercussions on hiring our children, will imperil the welfare of the society, and will not solve the dilemmas of young people in the present and the future. It is a policy failure and a lack of experience.

What is required of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia?

The Egyptians ratified on June 30, 2013 the statement calling for the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi. After June 30th, Egypt will not be as it once was, even if it takes a long time.  However, I believe that it will be a short time.  The Brotherhood is now on the path of regression in terms of its popularity and performance, and even their allies from the Salafis have started to distance themselves. 

It is my hope that the Egyptians will find a compromise, and the best solution for the Muslim Brotherhood is to participate partially in power in order to learn governance and train to avoid double talk. The most important factor is to make a Cultural Revolution, thereby removing the phenomena of tyranny coated with religion and to consider democracy as a system of civilian rule, not as a bridge to cross in order to usurp freedom, democracy and modernity.

I would advise the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to change their association’s name because this name will remain a terrifying nightmare for present and future generations in Egypt. In Tunisia, I think that the leadership of the Brotherhood of Ennahda will read very well what is happening in Egypt and infer all kinds of lessons.

We have repeatedly warned that Ennahda’s fatal errors in political matters such as the assassination Shukri Belaïd, their upholding of the law of political isolation,their links to the Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution, as well as the security incidents at Mount Chambi and earlier, will deeply affect the economy, security, and stability of Tunisia.

I do not doubt for a moment that the real prosperous future of Tunisia will be built with the monopoly of power by the Islamists.  The Ennahda Movement aborted every beautiful dream in the Tunisian Revolution. It did not achieve dignity and employment, nor did it assure people of their livelihoods, nor did it succeed in luring businessmen to invest in their own country, let alone overseas investors. 

I think that Tunisia, sooner or later, will undertake a movement so as to correct its revolution, but we would like this correction to happen with the blessing of Ennahda and to announce as soon as possible its willingness to relinquish all exclusionary laws and accept the input of experts inputs to make adjustments to the draft of the constitution. In addition, Ennahda  will partially  run in the upcoming elections in order to earn the necessary expertise in the conduct of the affairs of government.  It is noted that Abdel Fattah Mourou, Vice President of the Ennahda Movement, in one of his conversations, advised his party to stay 20 years in opposition in order to learn governance and leadership. 

Nevertheless, I believe that Ennahda could be partly involved in the next government with limited participation in the government after the elections. I think that in this limited capacity, it would keep its apparatus because the voters will take that into consideration when voting in the next election. 

The Ennahda Movement will commit serious errors if it prolongs the transitional phase. I would advise the movement to get rid of all linkage of its submissive thoughts to the Muslim Brotherhood and become a civilian political party without insisting upon the Tunisian Islamic reference because this common reference among all Tunisians and may not be the sole monopoly of any party. I believe that Rached Ghannouchi is confronted with an historic opportunity to fix a strategic error which was committed when he strongly rejected the proposal of government of technocrats. 

He has to convince his party to undergo a radical change in its strategy for ruling. This change is based on the limited participation of his party in power.  Before embarking on this endeavor, he has to determine the final date for the elections.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad and the Beginning of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Regression:

The change of government in Qatar was a sign for both the short as well as the long terms.  The Muslim Brotherhood has a habit of reading the visible lines, not behind the lines (see, for example, the statement of  former Tunisian Minister of Foreign Affairs Rafik Abdul Salam, in which he indicated a limited capability in forward-looking vision with regard to the change of government in Qatar).

The change that  took place in Qatar will be followed, as I see it, with a change in Egypt, Tunisia, and several other countries. The new Qatari Emir is a cultured young man, and it is a requirement for him to modernize the country's institutions and put it on the path of democratic and modernist nations. This project is not in line with the thought of the Muslim Brotherhood. Moral and material support to the Brotherhood will disappear on the far horizon, not the near one, because it turns out that the Brotherhood  is unable to be compatible with democracy. 

In the meantime, it would appear that moderate Islamic forces within the Arab world will lay the foundation for a new culture that has been absent in the project of the Arab Spring revolution.  This would be a kind of culture that establishes genuine, unadulterated co-existence with others, and a serious dialogue between religions and civilizations as well as openness to all that is good in the universal culture. I believe that Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad will later turn the page on the Brotherhood. He will find that it is the desire of the Arab peoples to turn this page.

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